This is the web page for AMS 206 (winter 2020). In what follows DD = David Draper (lecturer; email address draper@ucsc.edu), PT  = Peter Truby  (Head TA; email address ptrubey@ucsc.edu), XY = Xingchen (Joe) Yu (TA: email address xyu26@ucsc.edu), and BE = Baskin Engineering.

The catalog description for AMS 206 is as follows:

Introduces Bayesian statistical modeling from a practitioner's perspective. Covers basic concepts (e.g., prior-posterior updating, Bayes factors, conjugacy, hierarchical modeling, shrinkage, ...), computational tools (Markov chain Monte Carlo, Laplace approximations), and Bayesian inference for some specific models widely used in the literature (linear and generalized linear mixed models). Prerequisite(s): course 131 or 203, or by permission of the instructor. Enrollment is restricted to graduate students except by instructor permission.

• (7 Jan 2020) Announcements will be posted in this section. The first Attachment section below will contain (scanned) PDF copies of the lecture notes, document camera notes and extra notes, as well as case studies and R and RJAGS code; the second Attachment section will contain secure documents and is invisible until you log into the web page with your CruzID Blue password (click on the tiny 'Log In' text in the lower right corner).
• (7 Jan 2020) The webcasts for the course have now been scheduled. To watch a video, go to https://webcast.ucsc.edu/ and click on the Video List link under AMS 206; you'll then be taken to a login page. Type stat-206-1 in the top yellow box and uncertainty-quantification in the yellow box below that; if you check the Remember me box, you won't have to type these things in during subsequent logins on the machine where you just entered those details. When you now click the blue Login box, you'll go to the Course Webcasts page, and you can now watch any videos you like. The nice thing about the webcasts is, unlike me when I'm lecturing, you can pause, rewind and fast forward the videos.
• (7 Jan 2020, revised 14 Jan 2020, revised again on 24 Jan 2020, updated again on 11 Feb 2020) The current times and places for office hours for STAT 206 this quarter are as follows: Mon 9-10.30am-noon in BE 156 (PT); Mon 3.30-5pm in E2 room 194 (PT); Tue 1.30-3.05pm in the Baskin Auditorium (Baskin 101: DD); Wed 11am-1pm in BE 312C/D (XY); Thu 1.30-3.05pm in the Baskin Auditorium (Baskin 101: DD); Fri 10-11am in BE 312C/D (XY). The TA office hour times and places may continue to change once we find rooms that permit laptop screen projection, to help you with the R coding in this class. (E2 is the Engineering 2 building.)
• (9 Jan 2020) In this class you'll turn in your solutions to all assignments by upload of single PDF files (one file per assignment; multiple files [e.g., one PDF file per page] are not acceptable) to canvas.ucsc.edu (to go to this website, click here [to return to the course website, click the back button (left arrow) in the upper left corner of your browser).
• (2 Feb 2020) I commend to your attention the following video, which is a record of a Ted talk given by the outstanding French pure mathematician Cedric Villani, about the frustrations and joys of using mathematics to gain a better understanding of the world around us.